Phil Tetlock is one of the greatest social scientists of our time.

He’s spent his career trying to answer a crucial question: How good are people at predicting what will happen in the future? And how can we get better?

For over 35 years, Phil and his team have collected forecasts from tens of thousands of people, who have made millions of predictions.

Here are some of the types of questions they were asked:

• Who will be inaugurated as President of Russia in 2012?
• Will the United Nations General Assembly recognize a Palestinian state by Sept. 30, 2011?
• What will be the lowest end-of-day price of Brent Crude Oil between Oct. 16, 2011 and Feb. 1, 2012?

Our ability to make good forecasts is vital:

“When we think about changing jobs, getting married, buying a home, making an investment, launching a product, or retiring, we decide based on how we expect the future will unfold.” - Superforecasters

Three Things To Know From Phil’s Research

One Of The Biggest Misunderstandings Of Phil’s Work

Four Tips To Make Better Forecasts

To Get Better Answers, Ask Better Questions: The Art of Question Clustering

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